The Enlightment of Technological Trajectory Theory for Latecomers
Lin Min1, 2, Wu Guisheng2, Xiong Hongru2
1.School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Science and Technology, Beijing 100083;China;2.Research Center for Technological Innovation, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Abstract：The research of technological trajectory has long been the leading topic in innovation studies and practices.Based on systematically summarizing the concept, features and determinants of technological trajectory, this paper investigates the application of technological trajectory theory in the pattern of technological progress and catching up.This paper concludes the following important enlightenments.Firstly, technological trajectory with weak cumulativeness is easier for developing countries to open the window of opportunity to achieve leapfrog development.Meanwhile, cumulativeness is the source of path dependency.Secondly, it is essential to strengthen technical early warning and forecast limits of technology as they are the basis for R&D strategic choice and R&D resource allocation.The marginal efficiency of innovation is low when technology close to its technological limitation.Thirdly, because of the cumulativeness and exclusiveness of technological trajectory, transition cost is usually high for first movers and low for late comers which may help the later to achieve late comer advantage.Fourthly, Early technology development and market size play a key role in the formation and development of technological trajectory.To grasp and use the environment is an important part for obtaining competitive advantage of technological trajectory.
林敏;;吴贵生;熊鸿儒. 技术轨道理论对后发者追赶的启示研究[J]. , 2013(9): 13-19.
Lin Min;;Wu Guisheng;Xiong Hongru. The Enlightment of Technological Trajectory Theory for Latecomers. , 2013(9): 13-19.
2013, 
