Abstract：Based on three-stage Markov regime switching model,regimes identification and synchronization analysis were made to analyze the dynamic process of China's financial technology investment cycle and economic cycle since reform and opening up.The empirical results show that:financial technology investment cycle and GDP cycle contain three stages named low growth,moderate growth and the high growth phase,which switches with probability;financial technology investment has stronger persistence and volatility in the low growth and high growth phase than GDP on the same stage,and has weaker persistence and volatility in the moderate-growth phase than GDP on the same stage;the early 1990's is the watershed to judge if financial technology investment cycle and GDP cycle is synchronized or not.Before this prior,financial technology investment cycle and the GDP cycle is non-synchronized;and after this,financial technology investment cycle and the GDP cycle exhibit static synchronization relationship,and then shows dynamic synchronization relationship,but GDP cycle has a certain time lag compared with financial technology investment cycle
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