Abstract：The paper measures excess capacity of 28 subdivision manufactures by cointegration in China,and examines the effects of technical progress on excess capacity and function of government intervention.It shows:firstly, all technical types of manufacture have excess capacity in recent years,and excess capacity degree of middle technical manufacture is more than low technical and high technical manufacture.Secondly,technical progress can obviously promote capacity utilization of manufacture,defuse excess capacity.The function of promoting capacity utilization on middle technical manufacture is the most in all technical types of manufacture.Government intervention will change the function of technical progress,the effects of technical progress can find system excess capacity.Thirdly,the influence path of government intervention is smooth transition.When government intervention exceeds threshold value,the effects of technical progress on manufacture excess capacity will weaken unceasingly.And excess capacity will change with business cycle
2017, 
