Analysis on Engineering Technology Needs for the Future Development of Key Industries and Fields——Taking Health Care and Energy Industries as Examples
Wang Hongwei1,2,3, Zhang Jing4, Zhang Yanfang5, Zhu Chengliang1,2,3
1. Institute of Quantitative & Technological Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China; 2. Laboratory of China's Economic and Social Development & Smart Governance,Beijing 100732,China; 3. Research and Consultation Center for Project Evaluation and Strategic Planning,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China; 4. National Academy of Innovation Strategy,China Association for Science and Technology,Beijing 100038,China; 5. Institute of Industrial Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100006,China
Abstract:The progress and innovation of engineering science and technology increasingly plays a dominant role in the economic and social development.Seizing the development trend of engineering science and technology from the perspective of national strategical and social-economic needs has great significance on optimizing the allocation of technological resource,promoting the implementation of innovation-driven development strategy,and realizing self-reliance and self-improvement of science and technology.Based on the theory of“demand-driven innovation”the paper analyzes the relationship between scientific and technological progress and industrial development,analyzes the theoretical incentives for the development of emerging industries to promote technological innovation,and proposes a research framework and implementation path for engineering science and technology foresight to meet the development needs of key industries in the future.Based on the forecast of future economic development and the vision of future economic and social development,the paper takes the two industries of health care and energy as examples,comprehensively considers the key issues faced by the future development of the industry,the goals and requirements of major national strategies,etc.,and invites strategic experts in the field to forecast the demand direction of engineering technology,key engineering technology,constraints and possible industrialization prospects of industrial engineering technology.
王宏伟, 张静, 张艳芳, 朱承亮. 面向未来重点产业和领域发展的工程科技需求分析——以医疗和能源领域为例[J]. 中国科技论坛, 2022(10): 31-41.
Wang Hongwei, Zhang Jing, Zhang Yanfang, Zhu Chengliang. Analysis on Engineering Technology Needs for the Future Development of Key Industries and Fields——Taking Health Care and Energy Industries as Examples. , 2022(10): 31-41.
[1]高卉杰,王达,李正风.技术预见理论、方法与实践研究综述[J].中国管理信息化,2018,21(17):78-82. [2]SILBERGLITT R,ANTÓN P S,HOWELL D R,et al.The global technology revolution 2020,in-depth analyses:bio/nano/materials/information trends,drivers,barriers,and social implications[R].RAND Corporation,2006. [3]方伟,曹学伟,高晓巍.技术预测与技术预见:内涵、方法及实践[J].全球科技经济瞭望,2017,32(3):46-53. [4]MILLER D T.Defense 2045:assessing the future environment and implications for defense policymakers[R].Centre for Strategic & International Studies,2015. [5]SOKOLOV A,CHULOK A,MESROPYAN V.Long-term science and technology policy:russian priorities for 2030[R].Higher School of Economics Research Paper,2013. [6]曹学伟.欧洲议会STOA开展技术预见研究分析及启示[J].今日科苑,2020(11):60-68. [7]杨幽红,冯爱明.我国技术预见研究现状分析[J].科技管理研究,2010,30(20):218-221. [8]MARTIN B R.Foresight in science and technology[J].Technology analysis & strategic management,1995,7(2):139-168. [9]GEORGHIOU L.The UK technology foresight programme[J].Futures,1996,28(4):359-377. [10]中国工程科技2035发展战略研究项目组.中国工程科技2035发展战略:技术预见报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2019. [11]穆荣平,任中保,袁思达,等.中国未来20年技术预见德尔菲调查方法研究[J].科研管理,2006(1):1-7. [12]许立达.特尔斐法的稳定性与一致性[J].情报科学,1981(4):41-48. [13]陈玉祥.专家调查法[J].预测,1982(1):22-27. [14]董德基.基层企业的情报调研方法:特尔菲法(专家评估法)[J].情报知识,1982(6):9-16. [15]李仲篪.运用多种手段搞好情报研究[J].兵工情报工作,1985(5):16-19. [16]陈玉祥,朱东华.特尔斐法的应用研究[J].未来与发展,1990(5):42-44. [17]蔡辉,张颖,倪宗瓒.Delphi法中评价专家的筛选[J].中国卫生事业管理,1995(1):49-55. [18]管春,胡军.基于人工神经网络改进的Delphi法[J].微计算机信息,2006(30):171-173. [19]张冬梅,曾忠禄.德尔菲法技术预见的缺陷及导因分析:行为经济学分析视角[J].情报理论与实践,2009,32(8):24-27. [20]李万.上海区域产业技术路线图的实践与推进思考[J].中国软科学,2009(S2):145-149. [21]胡冬雪,胡志根.基于市场德尔菲法的新能源汽车领域技术预见实证研究[J].世界科学,2009(8):44-47. [22]但智钢,史菲菲,王志增,等.中国环境工程科技2035技术预见研究[J].中国工程科学,2017,19(1):80-86. [23]巫英.上海建设城市创新体系的现状与对策研究:基于创新生态系统视角[J].科技管理研究,2017,37(16):1-6. [24]周源,刘怀兰,廖岭,等.基于主题模型的技术预见定量方法综述[J].科技管理研究,2017,37(11):185-196. [25]陈进东,张永伟,梁桂林,等.中国工程科技2035关键技术选择与评估[J].中国软科学,2019(8):144-153. [26]梁帅.技术预见的价值理念转向及其实施路径[J].今日科苑,2019(11):15-20. [27]许彦卿,周晓纪,黄廷锋,等.日本第11次技术预见:基于趋势与微小变化的蓝图描绘[J].情报探索,2020(10):69-76. [28]王达,苗晶良.日本量子科技的最新趋势和未来展望:基于第11次技术预见调查结果的分析[J].今日科苑,2020(11):78-88. [29]王倩,李天柱.大数据产业共性技术路线图研究[J].中国科技论坛,2018(4):73-82,111. [30]贾晓峰,陈娟,唐小利.医药制造产业技术路线图框架构建研究[J].科技管理研究,2018,38(11):128-133. [31]杨雪.基于新型工业化的科技需求与科技能力研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2005. [32]彭健.构建“频谱高速公路”助力国家重大战略实施[J].上海信息化,2018(8):6. [33]ROSENBERG N.Science.Innovation and economic growth[J].Economic journal,1974,3:51-77. [34]DOSI G.Sources,procedures,and microeconomic effects of innovation[J].Journal of economic literature,1988,26(3):1120-1171. [35]SCHMOOKLER J.Invention and economic growth[M].Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1966. [36]JUDD K L.On the performance of patents[J].Econometrica,1985,53(3):567-585. [37]UTTERBACK J M.把握创新[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1999. [38]FURMAN J L,PORTER M E,STERN S.Determinants of national innovative capacity[J].Research policy,2000,31(6):899-933. [39]CHRISTENSEN C M.The innovators dilemma:when new technologies cause great firms to fail[M].Boston:Harvard Business School Press,1997. [40]BRUNNER J K,ZWEIMÜLLER J.Innovation and growth with rich and poor consumers[J].Metroeconomica,2005,56(2):233-262. [41]MCKNIGHT L W,BAILEY J P.Internet economics[M].Cambridge:MIT,1998. [42]WHANG Y,HOBDAY M.Local test bed market demand in the transition to leadership:the case of the Korean mobile handset industry[J].World development,2011,8:1358-1371. [43]谭洪波,郑江淮,张月友.需求对战略性新兴产业的拉动作用研究综述:兼论需求和创新对产业结构演变的作用[J].华东经济管理,2012,26(5):134-139. [44]张米尔,田丹.基于利基策略的企业核心技术能力形成研究[J].科学学研究,2005,23(3):388-393. [45]程鹏,李洋.本土需求能倒逼企业创新能力的可持续成长吗[J].科学学研究,2017,35(6):949-960. [46]朱承亮.颠覆性技术创新与产业发展的互动机理:基于供给侧和需求侧的双重视角[J].内蒙古社会科学,2020,41(1):112-117. [47]孟海华,杨起全,王革.产业技术路线图的制定研究初探[J].中国科技论坛,2008(6):75-80. [48]李建功,唐雄燕.智慧医疗应用技术特点及发展趋势[J].医学信息学杂志,2013,34(6):2-7,17. [49]成栋.“互联网+”引领下的智慧医疗发展探析[J].人民论坛·学术前沿,2017(24):24-31. [50]谢俊祥,张琳.精准医疗发展现状及趋势[J].中国医疗器械信息,2016,22(11):5-10. [51]廖生武,刘天峰,赵云,等.欧美发达国家远程医疗服务模式对我国的启示[J].中国卫生事业管理,2015,32(10):730-732.