Abstract：National technology foresight has been playing an important role of national science and technology decision-making,which provides support for formulating national science and technology policies and development strategies,selecting priority development areas,and determining the direction of R&D investment,and lays a foundation for the formulation of science and technology planning.National critical technology selection and technology foresight has gone through 40 years,accumulated rich practical experience,and provided good materials for technology foresight research.Retrospective reviewing six national technology foresight in China,can be found that each stage of technology foresight practice has distinctive characteristics.The process system has been constantly improved and the methodology has been continuously optimized,which has gradually become a basic work of science and technology management departments.However,it also faces many problems and challenges.It is necessary to further improve the normalized technology foresight mechanism,strengthen social communication and exchange functions,emphasize vision and demand orientation,and improve methodology system to improve the institutionalization and standardization of technology foresight.
袁立科. 国家关键技术选择与技术预测40年回顾与思考[J]. 中国科技论坛, 2022(12): 25-34.
Yuan Like. Retrospective Review of 40 Years of National Critical Technologies Selection and Technology Foresight. , 2022(12): 25-34.
[1]POPPER S,WAGNER C.Identifying critical technologies in the United States:a review of the federal effort[J].Journal of forecasting,2003,22 (2-3):113-128. [2]IRVINE J,MARTIN B.Foresight in science:picking the winners[M].London:Pinter,1984. [3]COATES J F.Foresight in federal government policymaking[J].Futures research quarterly,1985 (1):29-53. [4]MILES I.The development of technology foresight:a review[J].Technological forecasting & social change,2010,77 (9):1448-1456. [5]CHOI M,CHOI H.Foresight for science and technology priority setting in Korea[J].Foresight and STI governance,2015,9 (3):54-67. [6]BRANDES F.The UK technology foresight programme:an assessment of expert estimates[J].Technological forecasting & social change,2009,76 (7):869-879. [7]李思敏.科学支撑未来决策:英国技术预见的经验与启示[J].今日科苑,2021 (9):69-77. [8]CUHLS K,BLIND K.Foresight in Germany:the example of the Delphi 98:how can the future be shaped[J].International journal of technology management,2001,21 (7/8):767-780. [9]CUHLS K,KUWAHARA T.Outlook for Japanese and German future technology,comparing technology forecast surveys[M].Heidelberg:Physica Publishers,1994. [10]CUHLS K.Foresight in Germany:impacts of the national BMBF foresight cycles[C].NISTEP conference,2015. [11]预测方法和技术的应用研究课题组.中国预测技术发展研究[J].预测,1991 (5):10-17. [12]李丰,陈玉祥.80年代中国预测研究析评[J].预测,1991 (2):1-6. [13]孙明玺,吴俊卿,张志兴.关于预测方法和技术应用的研究[J].中国软科学,1993 (3):38-40. [14]李伯溪,李金昌.关于 “2000年的中国”之研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,1986 (7):5-6. [15]马洪.2000年的中国[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1989. [16]金良浚.要建立专业化的科技顾问机构[J].技术与市场,1981 (1):25-31. [17]技术预测与关键技术选择研究组.从预见到选择:技术预测的理论与实践[M].北京:北京出版社,2001. [18]李思一.技术创新和国家关键技术选择[J].国际技术经济研究学报,1994 (4):7-11. [19]简南红.美日欧国家关键技术计划的比较分析[J].北京航空航天大学社会科学学报,1995 (2):87-91. [20]穆荣平,陈凯华.科技政策研究之技术预见方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2021. [21]任林,徐雅文,顾大伟.我国90年代经济发展的关键技术[J].中外科技政策与管理,1994 (6):14-16. [22]周永春,李思一.国家关键技术选择:新一轮技术优势争夺[M].北京:科学技术文献出版社,1995 [23]技术预测与国家关键技术选择研究组.中国技术预测报告 (2003)[M].北京:科学技术文献出版社,2005. [24]李群,赖于民,郝立勤.技术预见:从战略视角把握关键技术选择[J].云南科技管理,2003 (6):13-15. [25]程家瑜.编织国家技术路线图推进规划纲要实施[J].创新科技,2008 (2):14-15. [26]袁立科,王书华.走向系统性预测:中国技术预测的历史与实践[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2021 (3):3-15. [27]白光祖,曹晓阳.关于强化国家战略科技力量体系化布局的思考[J].中国科学院院刊,2021,36 (5):523-532. [28]李思一,范广增,周永春.国家关键技术选择:政府促进技术创新的手段[J].中国科技信息,1995 (3):8-9. [29]王慧炯,李泊溪. “2000年的中国”的系统研究和结论[J].系统工程理论与实践,1986 (2):4-12. [30]程家瑜.技术预测中熟悉专家与一般专家的非共识性讨论[J].中国科技论坛,2006 (5):97-101. [31]程家瑜.技术预测中咨询专家人数、权重和评价意见的讨论[J].中国科技论坛,2007 (5):24-28. [32]中国未来20年技术预见研究组.未来20年技术预见[M].北京:科学出版社,2006. [33]COCCIA M,WATTS J.A theory of the evolution of technology:technological parasitism and the implications for innovation management[J].Journal of engineering and technology management,2020 (55):1-18. [34]杨捷,陈凯华.面向社会愿景和挑战的优先技术选择研究[J].科学学研究,2021 (4):673-682. [35]JORGENSEN M S,JORGENSEN U,CLAUSEN C.The social shaping approach to technology foresight[J].Futures,2009,41 (2):80-86. [36]梁帅,赵立新.风险社会情境下技术预见的内涵、挑战和实施框架[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2021 (3):64-75.
2022, 
