Abstract：Whether China,the U.S.and South Korea join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership(CPTPP)will impact the Asia-Pacific economic and trade landscape.Although China has applied for membership,there is uncertainty about whether China will be successful.Therefore,this paper uses the GTAP simulation to analyze the impact on the manufacturing industry of seven possible scenarios for China,the U.S.and South Korea to join the CPTPP.The research findings show the followings.①CPTPP will cause China to incur economic losses.However,China's GDP will increase by 0.2% after joining.②CPTPP will have a limited impact on manufacturing output.However,the accession of the U.S.and South Korea will exacerbate the trade diversion effect and lead to wider losses.③Imports and exports of some industries are sensitive to tariff cuts.The CPTPP would curb Chinese import growth.In the expansion scenario where China is a non-member,above-average import losses for processed food,leather products,machinery and equipment and transport equipment,and export contraction is always the most severe for apparel and textiles.④China's accession is conducive to strengthening economic ties with the CPTPP's major trading partners,mainly trade between China and Japan will increase.If the U.S.becomes a new member,China-Vietnam trade will suffer the most.⑤Separate accession by the U.S.and China would lead to a contraction in trade between the two countries.The joint participation will strengthen the win-win cooperation relationship.This paper considers the impact of the expansion of the CPTPP from the perspective of the game of economic and trade interests between China,the US and South Korea,which is of some reference value to governments and industries to avoid harm and adjust their industrial policies.
郭际, 蒋少涵. 《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》扩容对中国制造业的影响研究[J]. 中国科技论坛, 2023(5): 163-171.
Guo Ji, Jiang Shaohan. Research on the Impact of CPTPP Expansion on China's Manufacturing. , 2023(5): 163-171.
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