The Impact of China-US Trade Friction on China's Industry and Economy Based on Section 301 Investigation Report on China in 2018
Qu Yue1,Qin Xiaoyu2,Huang Haigang3,Xia Youfu3
1.School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China; 2.School of Economics,Shandong University,Jinan 250100,China; 3.Strategy Center for China's Open Economy and International Technology Cooperation,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China
Abstract：Based on the Section 301 investigation report on China in 2018,this paper analyzes impact of the Section 301 investigation on China's industry and the overall economic development with the GTAP model.The evolution of section 301 reflects the shift of American trade policies.Though the frequency of Section 301 investigation has decreased significantly since the establishment of the WTO,the trade protectionism in USA is still relatively strong.Section 301 investigation in 2018 will have a negative impact on the current development of China's various industrial sectors,espacially on high and new technology industries,such as China's transportation,electronics,machinery,aviation,information and medicine.Among them,the machinery manufacturing represented by robots,and transportation represented by new energy vehicles,will get most severely damaged.Before China takes countermeasures,the United States will have some improvement in terms of trade balance and social welfare.But if the trade friction escalates,it is bound to have a negative impact on both economies.In addition,trade frictions will raise the social welfare of the major trading partners of China and the United States,and also bring them a different degree of trade deficit.
曲越,秦晓钰,黄海刚,夏友富. 中美贸易摩擦对中国产业与经济的影响——以2018年美国对华301调查报告为例[J]. 中国科技论坛, 2018(5): 128-135.
Qu Yue,Qin Xiaoyu,Huang Haigang,Xia Youfu. The Impact of China-US Trade Friction on China's Industry and Economy Based on Section 301 Investigation Report on China in 2018. , 2018(5): 128-135.
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