Abstract：Based on system dynamics,a model of Chinese industrial carbon emission trading policies has been set up to study the impact of quota trading price,quota free ratio,CCER trading price and CCER trading proportion constraint on Chinese industrial economy and environment.The results show that the implementation of quota trading policy will bring negative effect to industrial economy,but its impact on carbon reduction is more significant.The implementation of CCER trading policy can ease the negative impact of the implementation of quota trading policy on industrial economy.If CCER trading proportion and quota free proportion are too loose,the effect of emission reduction will be poor.The increase of quota trading price and CCER trading prices will exacerbate the negative effects on the economy,but at the same time the effect of emission reduction will be more obvious.
[1]MARTIN R,MUÛLS M,WAGNER U J.The impact of the European union emissions trading scheme on regulated firms:what is the evidence after ten years[J].Review of environmental economics & policy,2016,10(1):rev016.
[2]FÄ RE R,GROSSKOPF S,JR C A P.Tradable permits and unrealized gains from trade[J].Energy economics,2013,40:416-424.
[3]TANG L,WU J,YU L,et al.Carbon emissions trading scheme exploration in China:a multi-agent-based model[J].Energy policy,2015,81:152-169.
[4]HERMELING C,LÖSCHEL A,MENNEL T.A new robustness analysis for climate policy evaluations:a CGE application for the EU 2020 targets[J].Energy policy,2013,55(4):27-35.
[5]马秋卓,宋海清,陈功玉.考虑碳交易的供应链环境下产品定价与产量决策研究[J].中国管理科学,2014,22(8):37-46.
[6]WANG P,DAI H C,REN S Y,et al.Achieving copenhagen target through carbon emission trading:economic impacts assessment in Guangdong province of China[J].Energy,2015,79(79):212-227.
[7]WANG X,CAI Y,XU Y,et al.Optimal strategies for carbon reduction at dual levels in China based on a hybrid nonlinear grey-prediction and quota-allocation model[J].Journal of cleaner production,2014,83(83):185-193.
[8]隗斌贤,揭筱纹.基于国际碳交易经验的长三角区域碳交易市场构建思路与对策[J].管理世界,2012(2):175-176.
[9]曹先磊,张颖,石小亮,单永娟.竹子造林CCER项目碳汇价值动态评估及敏感性分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(2):247-256.
[10]代春艳,周艳玲.基于实物期权的垃圾焚烧发电CCER项目投资价值评估研究[J].生态经济,2016,32(4):123-127.
[11]SHAHBAZ M,ZESHAN M,AFZA T.Is energy consumption effective to spur economic growth in Pakistan? New evidence from bounds test to level relationships and granger causality tests[J].Economic modelling,2012,29(6):2310-2319.
[12]张俊荣,王孜丹,汤铃,余乐安.基于系统动力学的京津冀碳排放交易政策影响研究[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(3):1-8.
[13]NOAILLY J.Improving the energy efficiency of buildings:the impact of environmental policy on technological innovation[J].Energy economics,2012,34(3):795-806.
[14]江克宁.地区生产总值与固定资产投资关系的实证分析[J].统计与决策,2015(17):97-100.
[15]李园,张传平,谢晓慧.中国二氧化碳排放差异及影响因素分析——基于工业分行业的实证分析[J].工业技术经济,2012,31(8):39-45.
[16]吴英姿,都红雯,闻岳春.中国工业碳排放与经济增长的关系研究——基于STIRPAT模型[J].华东经济管理,2014,28(1):47-50.
[17]刘琪.基于系统动力学的天津市碳减排路径研究[D].天津理工大学,2016.
[18]顾阿伦,吕志强.经济结构变动对中国碳排放影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016(3).
[19]WANG D,MA G,SONG X,et al.Energy price slump and policy response in the coal-chemical industry district:a case study of Ordos with a system dynamics model[J].Energy policy,2017,104:325-339.
[20]熊灵,齐绍洲,沈波.中国碳交易试点配额分配的机制特征、设计问题与改进对策[J].武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2016,69(3):56-64.
2018, 
