Abstract：The paper adopts the production functions.And the carbon emissions such as consumption,total investment,and net exports are included in the total growth framework of the carbon emission.Then it calculates the elements output elasticity of carbon emission based on the annual provincial panel data from 2000 to 2016.Further,it estimates the potential growth rate on the carbon emissions of China,and forecasts the potential carbon emissions among provinces.The research shows that the growth of carbon emissions in China is still driven by the huge investment and the industrial development.From the perspective of the supply side,the decline in the growth rate of potential carbon emissions is mainly due to the better investment structure and the net exports moving towards the medium to high end.However,the increase in carbon emissions from the consumer sector generated by the demand side has partially offset the decrease in carbon emissions from the investment and net export.According to the forecast results,the carbon emissions have little differences under the three economic development scenarios(benchmark,optimism and pessimism)in China.According to the provincial forecast results,there is still a big difference in the potential reduction rates on the carbon emission in different regions.Accordingly,we propose the countermeasures and suggestions.
谭灵芝. 供给侧结构性改革下中国碳排放量潜在增长率估算[J]. 中国科技论坛, 2019(1): 161-169.
Tan Lingzhi. Estimation on the Potential Growth Rate of Carbon Emissions in China Under Supply-Side Structural Reform. , 2019(1): 161-169.
2019, 
