Abstract:The innovation ecosystem is a nonlinear dissipative self-organizing symbiosis system with a progressive evolution mechanism of analog ecosystems.The three major habitat research groups,development groups and application groups are interwoven into a multi-directional and multi-directional communication mechanism that competes and evolves.It takes the three populations as the entry point,closely follows the ecological characteristics,introduces the logistic growth model,constructs a multi-group symbiotic evolution dynamics model.It uses the combination of numerical simulation and empirical analysis to explain the symbiotic evolution of population under different symbiotic modes.The paper predicts the symbiotic evolution of China's innovation ecosystem from 1990 to 2050.The research indicates that the symbiosis evolution trajectory of the innovative ecosystem is in line with the logistic growth law,which is divided into four stages:start,growth,maturity and saturation.The symbiotic evolutionary equilibrium and equilibrium conditions depend on the symbiosis between the populations.The Chinese innovation ecosystem is positive.In the latter half of the maturity period,the evolutionary model is mutually beneficial symbiosis.China's innovation ecosystem would be saturated from 2030 to 2050.
[1]戴亦舒,叶丽莎,董小英.创新生态系统的价值共创机制——基于腾讯众创空间的案例研究[J].研究与发展管理,2018,30 (4):24-36. [2]张运生.高科技产业创新生态系统耦合战略研究[J].中国软科学,2009 (1):134-143. [3]TRAITLER H,WATZKE H J,SAGUY I S.Reinventing R&D in an open innovation ecosystem[J].Journal of food science,2015,76 (2):62-68. [4]SAKO M.Business ecosystems:how do they matter for innovation[J].Communications of the ACM,2018,61 (4):20-22. [5]MOORE J F.Predators and prey:a new ecology of competition[J].Harvard business review,1993,71 (3):75-86. [6]ADNER R.Match your innovation strategy to your innovation ecosystem[J].Harvard business review,2006,84 (4):98-107. [7]李其玮,顾新,赵长轶.产业创新生态系统知识优势评价体系——以成都市高新区89家科技企业为样本的实证分析[J].中国科技论坛,2018 (1):37-46. [8]李万,常静,王敏杰,等.创新3.0与创新生态系统[J].科学学研究,2014,32 (12):1761-1770. [9]曾国屏,苟尤钊,刘磊.从 “创新系统”到 “创新生态系统”[J].科学学研究,2013,31 (1):4-12. [10]吕一博,蓝清,韩少杰.开放式创新生态系统的成长基因——基于iOS、Android和Symbian的多案例研究[J].中国工业经济,2015 (5):148-160. [11]宋华,卢强.基于虚拟产业集群的供应链金融模式创新:创捷公司案例分析[J].中国工业经济,2017 (5):172-192. [12]刘丹,闫长乐.协同创新网络结构与机理研究[J].管理世界,2013 (12):1-4. [13]ADNER R,KAPOOR R.Value creation in innovation ecosystems:how the structure of technological interdependence affects firm performance in new technology generations[J].Strategic management journal,2010,31 (3):306-333. [14]王发明,朱美娟.创新生态系统价值共创行为影响因素分析——基于计划行为理论[J].科学学研究,2018,36 (2):370-377. [15]赵放,曾国屏.多重视角下的创新生态系统[J].科学学研究,2014,32 (12):1781-1788+1796. [16]吴卫红,陈高翔,张爱美. “政产学研用资”多元主体协同创新三三螺旋模式及机理[J].中国科技论坛,2018 (5):1-10. [17]HUANG W,ZHUANG X.Study on knowledge diffusion of industry clusters based on the innovation cooperation network[J].Journal of management science,2012,25 (2):13-23. [18]欧忠辉,朱祖平,夏敏,等.创新生态系统共生演化模型及仿真研究[J].科研管理,2017,38 (12):49-57. [19]孙冰,徐晓菲,姚洪涛.基于MLP框架的创新生态系统演化研究[J].科学学研究,2016,34 (8):1244-1254. [20]张利飞.创新生态系统技术种群非对称耦合机制研究[J].科学学研究,2015,33 (7):1100-1108. [21]YIN P L,DAVIS J P,CHHABRA Y.Entrepreneurial innovation:killer apps in the iphone ecosystem[J].Social science electronic publishing,2014,104 (5):255-259. [22]袁纯清.共生理论:兼并小型经济[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1998:7-55. [23]LIU Z J,HUANG H Q,WERNERS S E,et al.Construction area expansion in relation to economic-demographic development and land resource in the pearl river delta of China[J].Journal of geographical sciences,2016,26 (2):188-202. [24]YAO Y,ZHOU H.The dynamic equilibrium and simulation of mobile internet platform innovation ecosystem[J].Kybernetes,2016,45 (9):1406-1420. [25]SHAO Z G,HAN C F,MENG L P,et al.Evolution model of regional transport infrastructure ecosystem based on logistic equation[J].Systems engineering-theory & practice,2018,38 (11):2918-2928.