Spatial Unbalance Character and Dynamic Trends Analysis of Regional Technological Innovation in China
Zhao Qiaozhi1, Yan Qingyou2
1. Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric and Power University, Baoding 071003, China; 2. School of Economics and Management, North China Electric and Power University, Beijing 102202, China
Abstract：From perspective of spatial distribution,this paper investigates the unbalance state and dynamic trends of technological innovations in China,and provides references for innovation-leading development transition.Results are as follows.First,unbalance state varied in a medium-high range and presented an inverted U-shaped trend from long-term rise to rapid decline.The year 2011 was the turning point.Variations among regions contributed the most to this trend,and the next was within-region variations.Second,the different innovation types positively affected the distribution trend,with strategic innovations playing the dominate role and substantive innovations developing at a relatively slower speed.Third,the low-level and high-level innovation output types have high probabilities of state self-locking,which are 92% and 99% respectively.Hence,there are opportunities and challenges simultaneously in China's technological innovation development.State jumping-up probabilities of medium-low and medium-high type are more than the other two.Transition probability from medium-low to high-level is 26% and to high-level state is 5%.Probability transiting from medium-high to high-level is 47% while it is 6% to medium-low state.This evolution of spatial equality is a long run process,with high-level provinces projected to reach 85% and 95% in the year of 2030 and 2050 respectively.Hence,it is suggested that policies should be issued to encourage high-quality technological innovation outputs represented by the key technologies and cutting-edge technologies and to improve the spatial spillover channels so that inter-regional development synergy could be achieved to realize technology-leading economic development.
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