Research on the Development Trend and Policy System Construction of Emerging Technologies Based on Hype Cycle
Yang Chao1, Meng Xianyin2
1. School of Public Policy & Management,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China; 2. School of International and Public Affairs,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200030,China
Abstract：The United States has published Gartner Cycle Reports for 25 years to help to anchor its position in the emerging technologies in the whole world.The research on how to grasp the trend of emerging technologies would provide key information to the new round of government technology.This research builds the database of emerging technologies on the basis of Gartner Hype Cycle from 2000 to 2019,analyzes the characteristics of 245 technologies in the IT field by describing the high-frequency emerging technology,the maturity and disappearance of emerging technology,and the expansion and decline speed of technology expectation.We also make good use of the CNKI Key Newspapers Database to display the relevance between technology expectations recognition and the positioning of one technology on the curve.The research results are as follows:Only 5 technologies experienced the whole process;The expected average expansion time is slightly higher than the average attenuation time and individual-related technologies are much faster than the organization-application technologies in the above time length;The bell curve is left-sided and it takes 1-4 years from the trough to maturity;Environment revolution and concept technology hype could partially explain the disappearance;By taking the example of high-frequency,matured,disappeared and expectation expanded technologies,the position that one technology is on the curve could be estimated in advance by its news media exposure.On this basis,we develop a model for IT field emerging technology policy system design and provide a plan for the technology planning with consideration of public expectation,which would be reference for the government management practice for emerging technologies.
杨超, 孟显印. 基于炒作周期曲线的新兴技术态势及政策系统供给研究[J]. 中国科技论坛, 2021(3): 17-27.
Yang Chao, Meng Xianyin. Research on the Development Trend and Policy System Construction of Emerging Technologies Based on Hype Cycle. , 2021(3): 17-27.
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