Abstract：Based on the quarterly survey data of four equipment manufacturing enterprises from 1998 to 2014,this study fits the four original time series into their optimal fitting models of ARIMA (p,d,q),and use the residual sequences of these models to form the time series of organizational innovation of the four equipment manufacturing enterprises.It reconstructs the phase space of these four time series,and uses the correlation dimension method and the Lyapunov exponent method to identify chaotic characteristics of organizational innovation evolution of the four equipment manufacturing enterprises.The correlation dimensions of the organizational innovation time series are all fractional,and their largest Lyapunov exponent are all positive.The empirical results indicate that the organizational innovation evolution of the equipment manufacturing enterprise has chaotic characteristics of the existence of the strange attractor and the sensitivity to the initial conditions.They provide the basis for building the chaotic model of the organizational innovation system of the equipment manufacturing enterprise and forecasting the short-term evolution trend of organizational innovation.
金玮, 石春生, 李逍然. 企业组织创新演化的混沌特性——基于4家典型装备制造企业样本数据[J]. 中国科技论坛, 2021(6): 66-76.
Jin Wei, Shi Chunsheng, Li Xiaoran. Chaotic Characteristics of Organizational Innovation Evolution——Based on Sample Data of Four Typical Equipment Manufacturing Enterprises. , 2021(6): 66-76.
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