Abstract:Disruptive technology is widely considered to be the best track for latecomer enterprises to seize market opportunities.How to grasp the future development theme and direction of disruptive technology? Focusing on the key issue,this paper constructs a topic identification model of disruptive technology from the perspective of patents and microblog data based on the innovation,diffusion,transition,enhancement,and substitutability characteristics of disruptive technology.Taking the field of artificial intelligence as the research object,the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model are verified.Furthermore,analyzing natural language processing,machine learning,neuromorphic intelligence,intelligent robots,and virtual reality in the field of artificial intelligence is an important theme for the future disruptive technological development.The conclusion of this paper enriches the research on disruptive technology identification,and has certain practical value for the government / enterprise to adjust the direction of technology research and development and establish strategic objectives.
王海军, 于佳文. 基于专利和微博的颠覆性技术主题识别研究——以人工智能领域为例[J]. 中国科技论坛, 2024(7): 83-94.
Wang Haijun, Yu Jiawen. Identification Research on Disruptive Technology Topics Based on Patents and Microblogging ——A Artificial Intelligence Industry Case. , 2024(7): 83-94.
[1]王海军.关键核心技术创新的理论探究及中国情景下的突破路径[J].当代经济管理,2021,43(6):43-50. [2]曹阳春,张光宇,欧春尧,等.颠覆性创新的技术演进特征分析:基于锂离子电池案例[J].中国科技论坛,2022,310(2):68-76. [3]王海军,于佳文,田晓冉,等.智能制造对企业颠覆性创新的作用机理——来自扎根理论的海尔案例研究[J].科技进步与对策,2023,40(1):102-113. [4]张光宇,黄家慧,曹阳春.后发企业颠覆性创新价值共创演化路径与模式跃迁——以比亚迪为例[J/OL].科技进步与对策:1-11[2023-05-15].http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/42.1224.G3.20230214.1132.010.html. [5]余维臻,斯晓夫,严雨姗.中国情境下新创企业如何实现颠覆性创新[J].科学学研究,2022,40(12):2294-2304. [6]CHRISTENSEN C M.The innovators dilemma:when new technologies cause great firms to fail[M].Boston:Harvard business school press,1997. [7]林春培,张振刚,薛捷.破坏性创新的概念、类型、内在动力及事前识别[J].中国科技论坛,2012(2):35-41. [8]苏鹏,苏成,潘云涛.基于历史案例的颠覆性技术特征分析[J].中国科技论坛,2019(8):1-9. [9]黄海洋,陈继祥.颠覆性创新的扩散过程与中小企业的竞争策略[J].工业工程与管理,2011,16(1):123-129. [10]张金柱,王秋月,仇蒙蒙.颠覆性技术识别研究进展综述[J].数据分析与知识发现,2022,6(7):12-31. [11]刘博文,白如江.数据融合视角下颠覆性技术的演化脉络与演化特征研究[J].科技管理研究,2023,43(8):32-41. [12]SOOD A,TELLIS G J.Demystifying disruption:a new model for understanding and predicting disruptive technologies[J].Marketing Science,2010,30(2):339-354. [13]NAGY D,SCHUESSLER J,DUBINSKY A.Defining and identifying disruptive innovations[J].Industrial Marketing Management,2016,57(8):119-126. [14]杨瑾,李蕾.数字经济时代装备制造企业颠覆式创新模式:基于扎根理论的探索[J].中国科技论坛,2022(8):89-99. [15]HUSIG S,HIPP C,DOWLING M.Analysing disruptive potential:the case of wireless local area network and mobile communications network companies[J].R&D Management,2005,35(1):17-35. [16]ANSARI S S,GARUD R,KUMARASWAMY A.The disruptor's dilemma:TiVo and the U.S.television ecosystem[J].Strategic Management Journal,2016,37(9):1829-1853. [17]许海云,王超,陈亮,等.颠覆性技术的科学-技术-产业互动模式识别与分析[J].情报学报,2023,42(7):816-831. [18]梁镇涛,毛进,李纲.融合“科学-技术”知识关联的高颠覆性专利预测方法[J].情报学报,2023,42(6):649-662. [19]潘一如,毛进,李纲.基于引文网络的高颠覆性专利知识扩散特征研究[J/OL].数据分析与知识发现:1-21[2023-12-05].http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/10.1478.G2.20230224.1809.008.html. [20]马立平,夏若雨,张海燕,等.基于传染病模型的颠覆性技术扩散仿真研究[J].情报工程,2022,8(6):16-27. [21]明星,胡立君,王亦民.跨界高端颠覆性创新模式研究:理论与案例验证[J].科技进步与对策,2020,37(15):11-17. [22]王超,许海云,方曙.颠覆性技术识别与预测方法研究进展[J].科技进步与对策,2018,35(9):152-160. [23]VOJAK B A,CHAMBERS F A.Road mapping disruptive technical threats and opportunities in complex,technology-based subsystems:The SAILS methodology[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2004,71(1):121-139. [24]CAGNIN C,HAVAS A,SARITAS O.Future-oriented technology analysis:its potential to address disruptive transformations[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2013,80(3):379-385. [25]SAINIO L M,PUUMALAINEN K.Evaluating technology disruptiveness in a strategic corporate context:a case study[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2007,74(8):1315-1333. [26]李牧南,赖华鹏,王良,等.基于主题强度突变检测的颠覆性技术识别:以工业互联网为例[J/OL].情报杂志:1-8[2023-12-06].http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/61.1167.g3.20230907.0943.010.html. [27]王英,庞弘燊.基于科技文献计量的颠覆性技术发展过程特征识别研究——以数字孪生技术为例[J].情报探索,2023(7):70-77. [28]石慧,潘云涛,苏成.颠覆性技术及其识别预测方法研究综述[J].情报工程,2019,5(3):33-48. [29]PREOBRAZHENSKIY Y V,FIRSOVA A A.Enhancing the knowledge spillover through the formation of the oligocentric national innovation system[J].Indonesian Journal of Geography,2020,52(3):368-373. [30]杨武,陈培,GAD D.专利引证视角下技术轨道演化与技术锁定识别——以光刻技术为例[J].科学学研究,2022,40(2):209-219. [31]黄鲁成,刘玉敏,吴菲菲,等.基于专利全引用信息的技术知识扩散特征研究:以石墨烯技术为例[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2017,38(4):149-161. [32]于光辉,宁钟,李昊夫.基于专利和Bass模型的颠覆性技术识别方法研究[J].科学学研究,2021,39(8):1467-1473,1536. [33]GEUM Y J,KIM C H,LEE S J,et al.Technological convergence of IT and BT:Evidence from patent analysis[J].ETRI Journal,2012,34(3):439-449. [34]ENDERLEIN T,BAUMER G M.Arcgis desktop:release 10[M].Redlands,CA:Environmental Systems Research Institute,2009. [35]王军,朱杰,罗茜.中国数字经济发展水平及演变测度[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2021,38(7):26-42. [36]TRANFIELD D,DENYER D,SMART P.Towards a methodology for developing evidence informed management knowledge by means of systematic review[J].British Journal of Management,2003,14(3):207-222. [37]LAN Z Z,CHEN M D,GOODMAN S,et al.ALBERT:a lite BERT for self-supervised learning of language representations[EB/OL].(2020-02-09)[2021-03-01].https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.11942. [38]GRAVES A,SCHMIDHUBER J.Framewise phoneme classification with bidirectional LSTM and other neural network architectures[J].Neural Networks,2005,18(5/6):602-610. [39]STEYVERS M,GRIFFITHS T.Probabilistic topic models[J].Hand-book of Latent Semantic Analysis,2007,427(7):424-440.