Abstract：Based on Schumpeter's innovation cycle theory,this paper constructs a systematic and dynamic prosperity index for scientific and technological innovation among Chinese enterprises using the synthetic index method,and conducts an in-depth analysis of its fluctuation characteristics.The results show that during the observation period,the prosperity index of scientific and technological innovation among Chinese enterprises exhibits significant and continuous fluctuations,with clear cyclical characteristics in terms of height,depth,and amplitude.These cyclical fluctuations demonstrate complex features of irregularity and asymmetry.Among the sub-indices of scientific and technological innovation in Chinese enterprises,all indices show a continuous upward trend;however,the growth of the economic output index is significantly lower than that of the scientific research output index.The results of trough-peak analysis and impulse response analysis reveal that the leading index precedes the coincident index by approximately four years,indicating a certain level of predictability for the coincident index.
杨武, 任禹佳. 中国大中型规模以上工业企业科技创新景气指数研究[J]. 中国科技论坛, 2025(4): 75-84.
Yang Wu, Ren Yujia. Research on The Boom Index of Science and Technology Innovation in Large and Medium-sized Industrial Enterprises in China. , 2025(4): 75-84.
2025, 
