Influence Mechanism of Energy Structure on Low-Carbon Economy in China
Wang Shaohua1,Yu Weiyang1,Zhang Wei2
1.School of Economics and Management,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004,China; 2.School of Economics and Business,Northeastern University at Qinhuangdao,Qinhuangdao 066004,China
Abstract：To effectively investigate the influence mechanism of energy structure on low-carbon economy,with the understanding of low-carbon economy and energy structure,the paper takes the carbon emissions intensity as the core element of low-carbon economy,and systematically analyzes the effect relationship of energy structure on low-carbon economy.Then,it calculates the total,direct or indirect influence of energy structure in the use of the path analysis,to catch the influence mechanism specifically.Results indicate that energy supply structure has subtle effect on the carbon emissions intensity,while total effect of energy consumption structure is 0.919,-0.189 by direct,and 1.108 by indirect.Based on this,by the ridge regression method,it builds a prediction model.According to it,the proportion of coal consumption(remove the coal for generating electricity)should be adjusted to 26.89%～27.87%,to achieve the commitment of energy saving
王韶华,于维洋,张伟. 我国能源结构对低碳经济的作用关系及作用机理探讨[J]. 中国科技论坛, 2015(1): 119-124.
Wang Shaohua,Yu Weiyang,Zhang Wei. Influence Mechanism of Energy Structure on Low-Carbon Economy in China. , 2015(1): 119-124.
[1]邢继俊,赵刚.中国要大力发展低碳经济[J].中国科技论坛,2007,(10):87-92. [2]鲍健强等.低碳经济:人类经济发展方式的新变革[J].中国工业经济,2008,(4):153-160.(6):3-6. [3]李慧明,杨娜.低碳经济及碳排放评价方法探究[J].学术交流,2010,(4):85-88. [4]陈心中.能源基础知识[M].北京:能源出版社,1984. [5]吴琦,武春友.基于DEA的能源效率评价模型研究[J].管理科学,2009,22(1):103-112. [6]林伯强.高级能源经济学[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2009. [7]Marzio Galeotti,Alessandro Lanz,Francesco Paulic.Reassessing the Environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 Emissions:A robustness Exercise[J].Ecological Economics,2006,1(57):152-163. [8]Martin Wagner.The Carbon Kuznets Curve:A Cloudy Picture Emitted by Bad Econometrics?[J].Resource and Energy Economics,2008,3(30):388-408. [9]杜婷婷等.中国经济增长与CO2排放演化探析[J].中国人口·资源与环境.2007,17(2):94-99. [10]牛叔文,赵春升,张馨,丁永霞.兰州市家庭用能特点及结构转换的减排效应[J].资源科学,2010,32(7):1245-1251 [11]Knapp T,R Mookerjee.Population Growth and Global CO2 Emissions[J].Energy Policy,1996,24(1):31-37. [12]Anqing Shi.The Impact of Population Pressure on Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions,1975—1996:Evidence from Pooled Cross-Country Data[J].Ecological Economics,2003,(44):29-42. [13]郭菊娥等.一次能源消费结构变化对我国单GDP能耗影响效应研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(4):38-43. [14]张文彤.SPSS11统计分析教程(高级篇)[M].北京:希望电子出版社,2002. [15]王锋,冯根福.优化能源结构对实现中国碳强度目标的贡献潜力评估[J].中国工业经济,2011,(4):127-137. [16]中国科学院可持续发展研究组.2004中国可持续发展战略报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2004.
2015, 
