The Effects of Carbon Density and Uncertainty on Forest Carbon Reduction of China in REDD+Programs
Sheng Jizhou1,2,3,Zhou Hui1,2,Miao Zhuang3,4
1.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,School of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,China; 2.China Institute of Manufacturing Development,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,China; 3.Institute for Urban and Environmental Studies,Chinese Academy of Social Science,Beijing 100028,China; 4.School of Economics and Management,Taizhou University,Taizhou 225300,China
Abstract：The accurate monitoring and measurement for reductions in carbon emissions are very important steps in the implementation of REDD+ programs.However,the universal existence of uncertainty and the changes in forest carbon density will be likely to affect the forest carbon reduction of China.The change scenarios of carbon density and estimation methods for uncertainty in the countries with an increase of carbon density are firstly proposed in this paper.Using the data from 1990—2010 in China,the simulation technique is used to analyze the influence of uncertainty and changes in forest carbon density on forest carbon reduction of China in different scenarios.The results show that the carbon reduction caused by changes in carbon density will be negative if the estimation errors are more than 5%.When the errors existing,the greater the area proportion of change in carbon density is,the more serious the underestimation of carbon reduction of China is.
盛济川,周慧,苗壮. 碳密度变化和不确定性对中国森林碳减排量的影响[J]. 中国科技论坛, 2015(7): 106-111.
Sheng Jizhou,Zhou Hui,Miao Zhuang. The Effects of Carbon Density and Uncertainty on Forest Carbon Reduction of China in REDD+Programs. , 2015(7): 106-111.
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